Sunday, December 31, 2017

FUND-HOUSE'S 2018 TREND FORECAST

As 2018 unfolds I thought it would valuable to provide our viewers with a peek into the future, so here goes:

Software: the major disruptor to doing business in the traditional way. Think, Uber, they  own no cars yet are the largest taxi company on the planet.  Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, yet they don't own any real estate or hospitality properties - it's all about software.

AI: will transform whole industries. For example, law school graduates will find it hard to get jobs because IBM's Watson can provide legal advice in seconds with a 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy by humans. If you are planning a career in law,  think twice - only legal specialists will remain.

Facebook: has developed pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.

Autonomous Cars: Time to do other things in your commute
Autonomous Cars: huge disruption. Over time there will be on reason for many people to own a car. They will just call for a car, it will show up, and drive you to your destination. No need to park. Only pay for driven distance. Work or do other things while on trip. Drivers licenses will become obsolete as will car ownership. No need for parking garages. Safer with less traffic fatalities. Auto insurance will not be required and if needed will be much cheaper - the auto insurance business with be transformed.

Healthcare: Tricorder X will shortly appear on the scene. A Tricorder is a medical device that works with your cell phone. You will be able to perform retina scans, take  blood samples, and breath tests.  It will use these to identify over 50 diseases. Eventually, everyone will have access to world class medical analysis - at very low cost.


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3D Printing: The cost of a 3D printer has gone from over $18,000 to $400 in 10 years  Many manufacturers use 3D printing for a variety of products.  For example every shoe manufacturer uses it to produce custom shoes for each customer.  Airplane spare parts, as well as, parts production can be made on-site to accommodate remote areas where service is required.

Food:. The first Petri dish veal has been produced and it is cheaper than calf produced veal.  30% of all agricultural land is devoted to cattle - imagine if cattle were no-longer required.

Longevity: Currently the average life span increases 3 months per year. But the increase is itself increasing so that by 2036 there will be a one year increase per each year. Shortly, the average age will be over 100. This will have massive impact on society.

In a nut shell, every business should be asking "can what we are producing now be used in the future? If the answer is NO its time to change your company's focus and markets.

Just saying,
Jim Lavorato



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